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Quick Commerce with 10-Minute Deliveries: Who Will Survive the Cash Burn?

Author

Chintankumar Maisuria
March 27, 2025

Read time: 3 minutes.

Welcome to the 105th edition of The Growth Elements Newsletter. Every Monday and sometimes on Thursday, I write an essay on growth metrics & experiments and business case studies.

Today’s piece is for 7,000+ founders, operators, and leaders from businesses such as Shopify, Google, Razorpay, Hubspot, Browserstack, Zoho, Freshworks, Darwinbox, Servcorp, Zomato, Postman and Swiggy.

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What is Quick Commerce, and Why is It Exploding in India?

[1] Definition of Quick Commerce

Quick commerce (Q-commerce) is ultra-fast delivery of groceries and essentials, often within 10-15 minutes.

It relies on dark stores (micro-warehouses) and high-density urban coverage to enable rapid deliveries.

[2] Why Quick Commerce is Growing in India?

  1. Rising Urban Demand: Consumers in metro cities want instant access to daily essentials.

  2. VC Funding & Discounts: Heavy investor backing and promotions drive adoption.

  3. E-commerce Behavior Shift: Indians move from weekly bulk shopping to on-demand buying.

[3] Who Are the Key Players in India’s Quick Commerce Market?

Company

Founded

Funding Raised

Valuation

Coverage

Zepto

2021

$1.35B

$5B (2024)

10+ cities

Blinkit (Zomato-owned)

2013 (Pivoted 2022)

Acquired for $568M

Part of Zomato

25+ cities

Swiggy Instamart

2020

Part of $1.25B Swiggy funding

Not disclosed

25+ cities

BigBasket Now (Tata-owned)

2011 (Quick commerce pivot in 2023)

$1.5B+ total

Part of Tata Digital

15+ cities

Is Quick Commerce Profitable? The Harsh Unit Economics

[1] How Quick Commerce Works

  • Orders are fulfilled from dark stores instead of large warehouses.

  • Delivery fleets operate in high-density areas, keeping turnaround times low.

  • Startups rely on discounts and free deliveries to acquire customers.

[2] Breakdown of Quick Commerce Unit Economics

Metric

Avg. Cost Per Order

Revenue Per Order

Profit/Loss Per Order

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

₹150

₹170

+₹20

Delivery Costs

₹40

₹0 (often free)

-₹40

Warehouse & Inventory Cost

₹30

₹0

-₹30

Marketing & Discounts

₹50

₹0

-₹50

Total Cost

₹270

₹170

-₹100 per order

[3] Why Most Quick Commerce Startups Lose Money

  • Delivery is often free, but logistics costs ₹40 per order.

  • Dark stores require high operational expenses.

  • Discounts and marketing spend increase burn rates.

[4] How Are They Surviving?

  • Most quick commerce players aren't profitable.

  • They burn cash to subsidize orders.

Who Will Survive the Quick Commerce Battle?

[1] What Separates Winners from Losers?

Factor

Winners

Losers

Delivery Density

High order volume per km²

Sparse orders, high delivery cost per order

Warehousing Efficiency

Optimized dark store inventory

Overstocking or frequent out-of-stock issues

Loyalty & Retention

Subscription models, high retention

Constant price-sensitive churn

Diversified Revenue Streams

Catalogue expansion to increase AOV, Embedded finance, brand partnerships

Sole reliance on grocery margins

Cash Flow & Funding

Strong financial backing or break-even operations

Heavy burn rate, unsustainable cash flow

[2] Which Quick Commerce Startups Are Struggling?

Companies that fail to fix their unit economics will either shut down or get acquired.

What’s the Future of Quick Commerce in India?

Scenario 1: Market Consolidation (Most Likely)

  • Only 2-3 major players will survive, just like Swiggy & Zomato in food delivery.

  • Stronger players will acquire smaller competitors.

Scenario 2: Profitability Push (Challenging but Possible)

  • Discounts will reduce, forcing users to pay full price.

  • Startups will launch subscriptions (like Amazon Prime) to lock in customers.

  • New revenue streams from fintech (credit, UPI payments), advertising, and supplier partnerships.

  • New category and catalogue expansion (Beauty, Fashion, High AOV Electronics and more) to increase AOV

Scenario 3: Funding Crunch & Shutdowns

  • If funding dries up, weaker players will shut down.

  • VCs will only fund companies with a clear path to profitability.

Can Quick Commerce in India Survive?

  1. Most quick commerce startups are losing money on every order.

  2. The market will consolidate, and only a few players will dominate.

  3. Profitability depends on optimizing logistics, pricing, alternative monetization models, product catalogue expansion and categories.

  4. Companies that diversify revenue (subscriptions, embedded finance) will have an advantage.

  5. VCs are demanding profitability, meaning startups need to fix their burn rate or exit.

Final Words

  • The 10-minute delivery war isn’t just about speed anymore, it’s about survival.

  • Startups that reduce cash burn, improve operational efficiency, and move beyond grocery sales will be the real winners of India’s quick commerce boom.

That's it for today's article! I hope you found this essay insightful.

Wishing you a productive week ahead!

I always appreciate you reading.

Thanks,
Chintankumar Maisuria